A Gentleman’s Agreement: US and Chinese Emissions Promises

In the past two weeks the United States and China have released separate plans for reducing their carbon emissions. Despite the fanfare that greeted the announcements, serious doubts have already been voiced about the combined effort. Put simply, is it going to be enough? Already worrying signs abound that these plans are too little, too late.

China led off last week with an ambitious plan to reduce emissions per unit GDP by 40-45% below 2005 levels by 2020. This announcement was soon followed by a pledge from the Obama administration to cut emissions 17% below 2005 levels by 2020 and 83% by 2050. Although Obama admitted that climate change has been “neglected for too long,” neither his plan nor the Chinese explicitly addresses how these reductions will be achieved, financially or otherwise. Nor has either country given details regarding monitoring, enforcement or verification. Neither will submit to an international body analogous to the IAEA, and without external monitoring, we are left to take both countries at their word. In the face of strenuous domestic pressure, it is not hard to imagine these promises being moderated—or scrapped altogether.

Assuming, however, that Obama and Hu Jintao can make good on their promises, the larger question must be whether they are enough. Several teams of climatologists have already raised doubts about whether this plan, combined with existing European commitments, would hold temperature rise to 2° Celsius, beyond which catastrophic climatic events will become more common. One conclusions is that, “The pledges made so far translate into around 3 °C warming by 2100,” a worryingly high number. At the Climate Action Tracker, the conclusion was stark: “The pledges on the table will not halt emissions growth before 2040, let alone by 2015 as indicated by the IPCC and are far from halving emissions by 2050, as has been called for by the G8.”

All of this assumes Obama will be able to push through legislation needed to reach the 17% goal. He already faces strenuous opposition in Congress over worries about Europe’s commitment to a viable carbon market and to potential impacts on industry. Already there are calls to use the estimated $646 billion in cap-and-trade revenues to offset utility hikes. Even if these plans pass the legislature, will they be enough?

The Obama Adminstration and Climate Change: An OverviewCLi

As President Obama and his advisers unveil their plans for the coming term, one thing seems certain: the new administration will usher in a sea change for climate change policy in the United States. For the first time, America is led by an executive who understands the perils of climate change and is committed to doing something about it.

The President’s new energy plan is unmistakably clear: “Global warming is real, is happening now, and is the result of human activities.” Among the plan’s ambitious goals:

Barack Obama Delivers Speech on Energy Efficiency

• An 80% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions by 2050,

• A 100% auction cap-and-trade program, estimated to raise $646 billion in revenue

by 2019,

• Significant spending on alternative energy, efficiency research and implementation;

• Reengagement with the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC),

• A new forum for large greenhouse gas emitters including the G-8 nations plus Brazil, China, India, Mexico and South Africa; and

• A new focus on reforestation and carbon sequestration.

Releasing this plan within his first month in office is a sure signal to the United States and to the world that confronting climate change is front-and-center of Obama’s legislative priorities. Even the $787 billion stimulus package includes several “green” provisions, with great potential to spur progress in climate change and energy research.

Climate change experts and foreign leaders internationally, however, are approaching the new administration with cautious optimism, but reporters at the December 2008 UNFCCC talks in Poland found international representatives hopeful that Obama’s “yes we can” mentality would carry over to the field of climate change. Acknowledging the higher concentration of climate skeptics in the U.S., Rajendra Pachauri, head of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, nonetheless said, “What’s happened in this country in the last two years is encouraging. The president is now strongly interested in this issue. Congress is dominated by Democrats who are also interested.” Foreign leaders, many of whom have taken political risks such as Mexico’s pledge to halve its emissions, will surely expect the U.S. to follow suit.

Barack Obama Meets with Canadian Prime Minister Stephen Harper

International outreach and collaboration are indeed on the current Administration’s agenda. Obama met with Canadian prime minister Stephen Harper in February to discuss climate change and Canada’s controversial plans to exploit their oil sands. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, in her “maiden voyage”, met with counterparts in China and emphasized cooperation on climate change and clean energy, especially considering the United States and China combined emit approximately 40% of the world’s total greenhouse gases. Grist’s environmental blog highlights a roundup

of the administration’s efforts to date, prospects for future climate change policy, and analyses of obstacles as well as allies in the House, Senate, industry and nonprofits.

To our international readers, what seems to be the general consensus regarding the U.S. Administration’s energy policy and Clinton’s visits to Japan, China, South Korea, and Indonesia? What strategies should the Administration pursue to mitigate climate change, and how can the Administration integrate efforts into those of the international community?